9/3/2014 6:51:55 PM
GKFX捷凯金融2014年08月20日 海外行情分析



This week has been one of 'risk off' in the precious and base metal markets despite the welter of geopolitical headlines and the streams of distressing media broadcasts out of Northern Iraq. 地缘政治新闻肆虐传播占据着新闻头条,来自伊拉克北部令人悲痛的媒体消息肆虐袭来,本周贵金属以及基本金属都陷入了“避险”状态。

Silver remains under pressure and is now looking a little bit soft and vulnerable. We see heavy selling appear every time the market approaches the $20 to $20.25 area. 白银仍面临重压,看似颇有点弱不禁风。我们可以看到每次市场只要一接近20美元到20.25美元区域就会出现大量的抛售。

We suspect this is because the 200 day moving average comes in at around $20.30 and the fund or funds that are selling want to keep silver below this level for long enough to change the chart patterns. Silver fell 1.0% last week after falling by 0.6% in the previous week. 我们怀疑这是因为200日均线保持在20.30美元左右,并且抛售的基金欲让银在低于该水平下保持足够长的时间以改变图表趋势走向。继上周之前银下跌0.6%之后上周银继续下跌1.0%。

Silver, like gold, benefited from the flight to “safe havens” on Friday. It was trading in and around the $19.90 level when President Obama authorized 'targeted air strikes' if needed to protect US personnel in Iraq. Silver rallied up to a high of around $20.15 before the selling began. 像黄金一样,周五白银也从到“避风港”的飞行中受益。当奥巴马总统授权批准必要时发动“目标空袭”保护在伊的美国人质时,这时交易价格保持在19.90美元水平左右。

Technically speaking, silver remains stuck within a broad trading range of $20.80 to $21.00 at the top end and $19.50 to $19.40 basis spot at the bottom end of the range. The market remains very quiet and featureless. 技术上讲,白银依然被困在这样一个广泛的交易区间内:上限20.80美元到21.00,下限19.50美元到19.40美元基本点。市场依然十分平静,毫无波澜。



Gold too perked up last Friday on the back of “safe haven” buying as the Ukrainian situation continued to deteriorate and the United States committed itself to selected air strikes against the IS(formally known as ISIS) in Iraq. Gold rose 1.4% last week after falling 0.3% in the previous week. 由于乌克兰局势进一步恶化,以及美国致力于空袭在伊选定目标(空袭目标官方名字叫伊拉克和大叙利亚伊斯兰国),上周五“避风港”之后黄金的购买热潮重新点燃。继前一周黄金下跌0.3%之后上周黄金又上涨了1.4%。

Gold could well move up towards the $1,320 to even $1,330 area basis spot on the back of either of these situation deteriorates. But the market usually finds good producer, dealer, and Chinese trade selling in and around the $1,320 area and above. 以上任何一种情况出现黄金就很可能朝着1,320美元往上移动到1,330美元区域基本点。但是市场通常能在1,320美元区域及以上位置点位置发现好的生产商,经销商以及中国的贸易销售。

The Chinese have appeared to show little uninterested in gold at current levels over the past week, and The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium to loco London has been trading at a discount for most of the time indicating that local demand is weak. 过去一周,中国人似乎对现有水平的黄金提不起丝毫兴趣,上海黄金交易所溢价到伦敦当地的大都在打折销售,暗示出当地的需求同样很微弱。

If on the other hand the situation begins to improve in either of these regions then we may well see some selling of “safe haven” assets including gold. Gold is likely to find very good support in and around the $1,280 area basis spot. 另一方面,若局面改善,我们很可能会看到包括黄金在内的“避风港”资产抛售。黄金很可能在1,280美元区域基本点左右找到良好的支撑。

It is worth pointing out that there have been a number of instances this year where heightened geopolitical risks have prompted spurts of aggressive buying of gold and other safe haven assets.值得一提的是,现在也有许多因素加剧了地缘政治风险,掀起了一股积极购买黄金和其他避险资产的热潮。

But the problem with these buying spurts is that they have consistently proved to be temporary. This reflects the short-term trading attitude of gold players and a general lack of interest in precious metals as an essential part of one’s long term investments.  问题是这些购买热潮后来都无一例外的被证明是一时的热情,反映出黄金买主的短期交易态度,他们对把贵金属作为一项长期投资普遍缺乏兴趣。

Thus the gold and silver markets are dominated with “fast money” and intra-day specs looking to trade the ranges. 因此来说,黄金和白银是期望在一定区间内交易,以“快钱”和日内规格为主导的市场。

It is interesting to note that the SPDR gold ETF posted its largest weekly fall in three months last week. Holdings fell 5.98 tonnes to 795.86 tonnes of gold bullion. 有趣的是要注意,上周标准普尔存托凭证黄金交易所交易基金公布了三周内最大单周跌幅。金块控股下跌5.98公吨达至795.86公吨。

The trading volume in gold on New York’s Comex so far this month is currently running some 27% below the year’s average. Things are definitely quiet in the gold market these days!  本月迄今为止,纽约黄金交易所的黄金成交量目前约有27%在运行,低于去年平均水平。这些天黄金市场绝对平静!

One final thought on China. A recent report by the World Gold Council said that Chinese companies may have accumulated up to 1,000 tonnes of gold for use as collateral in financing deals <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b3ce740-c3db-11e3-a8e0-00144feabdc0.html> rather than to meet consumer demand in recent years. 世界黄金协会的最近报告指出,中国企业可能累积了1000公吨的黄金用作融资交易的抵押品,而非满足近年来的消费需求。这是我对中国的最后一点看法。

        If that is the case it helps to explain why Chinese demand for gold fell 19% in the first six months of this year to only 569 tonnes compared with 706 tonnes for the same period of 2013. Perhaps China’s appetite for gold has been overstated. Only time will tell. 如果情况真是这样,那就不难解释今年前半年中国黄金下跌至569公吨的原因,相比2013年的706公吨同期下跌19%。也许是中国对黄金的需求被夸大了而已。这个只能让时间来验证。

And finally ......No discussion about gold is complete without a good conspiracy theory. 最终还是发现--没有好的阴谋论关于黄金的言论就不算完整。

While most theories are easily dismissed, some stay around for a while due to a confluence of circumstantial evidence surrounding it. 然而大多数言论都容易被忽略,有的言论之所以会流传一段时间是由于周围一系列间接证据的的综合影响。

Wall Street veteran Art Cashin addressed one such theory in this morning's Cashin's Comments.这是华尔街资深经济学家Art Cashin在今早Cashin's Comments上发表的观点。

In it he builds off of this weekend's New York Times story about Goldman Sachs' aluminum warehousing operation and connecting it to  Monday's sharp gold spike of $45。 评论中,在本周末《纽约时报》里,他发表了有关高盛集团铝的仓储操作的言论,并把之与周一黄金急剧飙升至45美元联系在一起。

The media pundits on the move pointed to sentiment from Russia, US action in Northern Iraq, China and the FOMC. 活动中媒体专家还指出了来自俄罗斯,伊拉克北部的美国行动,中国以及美国联邦公开市场委员会的观点。

And while all the cited may well have been factors, a number of veteran traders saw the bulk of the move resting elsewhere in a conspiracy story. 然而以上所列也许都是影响因素,许多资深交易员都见证了这个阴谋论黄金的跌宕起伏。

Cashin notes that Gold soared off the back of a NYT story on metal warehouses fanned flames of conspiracy theorists that gold warehouse stores have been "lent" out. A theory given credence by the current backwardation (spot price far above near future).   Cashin指出受《纽约时报》中阴谋论者大肆鼓吹金属库存已经贷出的言论影响,黄金出现上涨,当前的现货溢价证明了该言论。(现货价格远高于同类的期货)

Cashing expands this argument by adding that for several months "physical gold" (bracelets, coins and small bars) have seen near riotous demand with long lines stretching into the streets. At the same time "paper gold" (ETF's, futures and nominal spot) has seen steadily falling prices. That dichotomy has sparked more than a few conspiracy theories. 由于几个月来对 “实物黄金”(如金手镯、金币、小金条)的需求如雨后春笋般增长,支票兑现增加了该观点的适用范围。与此同时,“纸黄金”(如交易所交易基金、期货、以及标称现货)的价格也稳步下降。这种二分法引发了不少阴谋论。

The worst (and most strained) claims are that the world's central banks have put a bear raid on gold. This rumor claims that they are trying to cover the fact that they have sold/lent the gold they are supposedly safeguarding for their citizens. 最糟糕的(也是最牵强附会的)言论是世界各国央行看跌黄金。传闻宣称他们试图掩盖已卖出/贷出黄金的事实,他们还称黄金为其公民的保障。Of course a steadily falling gold price would reduce the urge to look behind the curtain (or into the vault) and discover this misfeasance. A more pervasive form of the rumor/hypothesis substitutes the global banks for the central banks but with the same, theoretical, abuse of custody. 当然,稳步下降的金价会减少我们到屏障后面(或者地下室里)一探究竟以及发现过失的冲动。一种形式更普遍的谣言/假设代替了全球中央银行但用同样的,假设的,以及理论上的滥用职权。

Far fetched? Perhaps. 太牵强?也许吧。

A key support of these theories is the backwardation in gold - the spot price is higher than the near future contract. That in itself is unusual. It could normally be resolved by selling spot gold and buying the cheaper future one month out. Thus, in a month, you would reap an apparent locked-in, riskless profit. Yet no one seems to be doing it. Is there really a shortage of physical spot gold? Is there doubt that there is gold in storage that will be deliverable in a month? So, the theorists assume. 这些理论的一个关键支撑是黄金现货溢价-现货价格高于同类的合约期货价。这本身就是不同寻常的。正常情况下可以通过抛售现货黄金以及未来一个月购买更廉价的期货的来解决。因此,一个月后,你会获得一个明显锁定的无风险利润。然而,看似没有人这么做。理论家假设:是否真出现了实物现货黄金的短缺?存储的黄金是否真的能一个月内交付?

Now add this in the front page NYT story, hinting chicanery and manipulation by the big banks of warehoused metals such as aluminium, nickel and zinc. Was this the smoking gun? Some people seemed to think so as a short covering stampede exploded the gold price. The next five days will be key. 现在特别说一下《纽约时报》头版股市,暗指一些大银行对诸如铝、镍、以及锌等金属库存进行欺诈和操纵。有确凿证据吗?有人认为这样的空投回补引爆了金价。那么接下来的五天非常关键。

Arb, or arbitrage, is a fancy word traders use to describe a situation where they can take advantage of market price discrepancies to book guaranteed profits. Arb或者说套利,是这样一华丽的词语:是交易商用来描述充分利用市场价格差异来提前保证收益的行为。

Is there something the traders know that we don't know? Are there other forces preventing the arb opportunity from being arbed away? 是不是还有什么是交易员知道而我们不知道的?是否还有其他力量阻止套利机会溜走?

Unfortunately, we are not sophisticated enough to answer these questions.不幸的是,我们还没有足够的能力来回答这些问题。


Copper remains  a very choppy market at present with values struggling to stay above support at $6,950 per tonne basis three months.With the summer vacation season in full swing in the west,Volumes are drying up rapidly. Overall Copper fell 1.1% last week after falling by 0.7% in the previous week,and open interest long positions on the LME fell to their lowest level in 5 weeks with further price corrections expected. 目前铜市场依然起伏不定,价格支撑力争保持在6,950美元/公吨以上基本三个月。随着西方暑假火爆来袭,成交量也在逐渐衰减。继上上周铜下跌0.7%之后,上周铜整体上下跌1.1%。伦敦金属交易所持仓多头头寸降至五周以来最低水平,修正了期望的期货价格。

Many macro fund managers and CTAs have been waiting for copper to break down. They reason that very solid support should be found in and around the $6,700 per tonne area and this is where they are anticipated to turn strong longer-term buyers. 许多宏观基金经理和商品交易顾问迫切等待铜价被打破。他们辩论说应该在6,700美元/公吨区域处找到坚实的支撑,并期望在此位置找到坚定的长期买家。

What motivates the fund managers as well as the idea of longer term value is that copper has a positive carry (backwardation). Overhead resistance is still very strong in and around the $7,070 area basis three months and then again at $7,200 per tonne. 能够激发基金经理刺激长期价值理念的是铜具有正利差(现货溢价)。上位阻位依然非常坚定的保持在7,070美元左右区域基本三个月,之后又涨到7,200美元/公吨。

Sentiment continues to blow hot and cold about Chinese copper consumption and the slowdown in the property sector. Sentiment on Monday morning got a boost when it saw that the Chinese Consumer Price Index grew by 2.3% year on year in July. This was bang in line with expectations and was unchanged from June. The Chinese Producer Price Index fell 0.9% year on year versus expectations of a fall of 0.8%. This was slower than the 1.1% fall seen in June. 有关中国铜消费以及地产界的萧条的观点争论依然摇摆不定。当周一早上七月份中国居民消费价格指数比去年同比增长2.3%时,情绪迅速高涨。此反弹与预期相符,并与六月份持平。中国生产者价格指数同比下跌 0.9%,而预期下跌是0.8%。慢于比我们看到的六月份1.1% 的跌福。

But, China's copper arrivals fell 2.9% month-on-month in July. This was the third consecutive month of falling imports. This fall is thought to reflect small importers delaying term refined metal shipments. In addition Bank finance for importing copper has also been tighter since the Qingdao collateral scandal and this may have had an impact as well. 但是,七月份中国铜环比下跌2.9%。这已经是连续第三个月进口下跌。我们认为此下跌反映了小进口商推迟了精炼金属出口。此外,进口铜的融资导入也自青岛抵押品丑闻之后更加收紧,可能也会有所影响。

Arrivals of copper anode, refined metal, alloy and semi-finished copper products stood at 340,000 tonnes in July, the lowest since April 2013, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Friday. The inflows dropped further from 350,000 tonnes in June when arrivals hit a 14-month low. 周五来自海关总署数据显示:七月份铜阳极、精炼铜、合金、以及铜半成品保持在34万公吨,达到2013年4月份以来最低值。该流入量在6月份达到了14个月以来35万公吨的最低点,并在此位置继续减少。

But that said total imports for the first seven months of 2014 still rose 18.7% year-on-year to 2.86 million tonnes. Traders said the improved price differentials between Shanghai and the London Metal Exchange had boosted spot refined copper purchases by large importers in late June and early July. 但是,据说2014年前7个月进口总额同比增长18.7%达至286万。交易商表示,上海和伦敦金属交易所增加的差价促进了六月底七月初大进口商对精炼铜的现货购买。

Imports in August may rise again as supply in the domestic market is tightening according to some dealers and this could encourage more imports and traditionally the seasonal peak of demand in China is usually in the September - October period. 据一些经销商反映,八月份进口可能会再次增加,因为国内商场供应在紧缩,会鼓励更多进口刺激中国传统的需求高峰期-九月以及十月份。

China also imported 900,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in July, down 4.3% year on year, according to the General Administration of Customs. The July imports were down 9.1% from June. For the first seven months of this year, copper concentrate imports totalled 6.33 million tonnes, up 17.3% year on year. 跟据海关总署的数据,七月份中国也进口90万公吨的铜精矿,同比下降4.3%。七月份进口量环比下降9.1%。今年前七个月,铜精矿总进口量为633万公吨,同比增长17.3%。


Alex Heath

金融生涯长约40年,成为LME的一名银&锡交易员是Alex Heath职业生涯的起点。精通于LME基本金属在期货、期权等方面的风险及研究。曾供职于LM...