9/4/2014 11:48:11 AM
GKFX捷凯金融2014年08月27日 海外行情分析

 

Silver
  银

Silver, like gold, came under more selling pressure on the back of the speech by Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday. The general interpretation of the speech was that interest rates are still likely to rise during the first quarter of 2015.

像黄金一样,周五杰克逊霍尔会议上美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦讲话之后白银面临巨大的抛售压力。这次讲话的主旨是说2015年第一季度利率仍有可能上涨。

 
Silver has moved down in its trading range. Support is now put in and around the $19.30 to $19.20 level basis spot while overhead resistance has moved down to $20.30 to $20.10 area basis spot.

白银在其交易区间内有所下跌。支撑点位于19.30-19.20美元水平基本点,而上方阻力已经下降到20.30-20.10美元区域基本点。
 
Silver fell 1.9% last week after falling by 1.3% in the previous week. Silver has lost nearly 10% of its value in the last four weeks if you compare its price to the July high of $21.55.

继上周之前白银下跌1.3%之后上周白银下跌1.9%。如果你把此价格同七月份21.55美元的高价相比,过去四周之内白银几乎下跌10%。

 
China’s silver imports fell in July to 97 tonnes, from 107 tonnes in June. Year to date China has imported 912 tonnes of silver, up from 692 tonnes for the same period in 2013.

中国白银进口从六月份的107公吨下跌至七月份的97公吨。今年迄今为止,中国白银进口达912公吨,相比2013年同期692公吨的进口量有所增加。
 
But although this year’s import figures are ahead of 2013 numbers, the 2014 imports are still well below those levels seen in the period 2010-2012.

但是即使今年的进口量超过了2013年,2014年进口仍远低于2010-2012年同期水平。
 
Some analysts doubt that China will lift its rate of purchases much, if at all, because China’s silver stocks still remain comfortably sufficient for some time to come.

一些分析师怀疑,如果真是这样,中国会提高其购买速度,因为中国的白银储备还需要一段时间才能实现充裕状态。
 
Seasonally speaking, China usually imports less silver in the second half of the year than in the first half. This has been true since the second half of 2011. Silver imports fall month on month from September through December.

从周期上讲,中国下半年进口比上半年要少。自2011年上半年来都是如此。从九月份到十二月份白银进口呈环比逐月下跌趋势。
 
But a sharp fall in the silver price could change all of that. A sharp fall below, say, $19 could bring out lots of buying.

但是白银价格的急剧下跌可能会改变一切。急剧跌破19美元也有可能引起大量的买盘。
 
Indian demand for silver in June fell 45% to 323 tonnes versus 579 tonnes for the same month in 2013. A fall in jewellery sales is responsible for the drop in imports and the fall in jewellery sales reflects the below average monsoon rains that India has had.

六月份印度白银为323公吨,比2013年579公吨相比同期下跌45%。珠宝销售的下跌是进口下跌的主要原因,反映出印度的季风降雨低于其平均水平的状况。
 
For the first half of 2014 Indian silver imports are down only 3.3% at 2,882 tonnes versus the first half of 2013. India imported a record 5,819 tonnes of silver last year. But imports this year are likely to be below 5,000 tonnes. But lower silver prices could change that.

2014年上半年印度白银为2,882公吨与2013年上半年相比同比下降3.3%。去年,印度白银进口达到5,819公吨,创历史新高。但是今年的进口很可能会低于5,000公吨。银价走低或许能改变现状。
 
  Gold
  黄金

Gold has moved down by around $20 per oz in its trading range. The new range looks to be $1,300 to $1,305 per oz basis spot at the top end while support is now likely to be found in and around the $1,260 to $1,250 level.

黄金在其交易区间内下跌至20美元/盎司左右。新的区间似乎在1,300到1,305美元/盎司基本点上方,可能在1,260-1,250美元左右找到支撑。
 
Sentiment in the gold market has been hit by a combination of strong US economic data and fears that the Federal Reserve will still raise rates during the first quarter of 2015. Gold fell 1.4% last week after falling by 1.0% in the previous week.

对于黄金市场的担忧主要来自经济数据的走强,以及对美联储在2015年第一季度继续提高利率的恐惧。继一周之前黄金下跌1.0%之后黄金上周下跌1.4%。
 
On Thursday gold broke below its 200 day moving average at $1,284 and this triggered off both stop loss selling and some resting sell orders. The technical picture for gold is quite weak at present and we could slide all the way below $1,250, especially if there is more evidence about an earlier rate increase.

周四黄金在1,284美元位置跌破200日均线,引发了止损抛盘和休眠状态的销售订单。目前黄金的技术价格十分微弱,可以一路跌破至1,250以下,特别是如果我们有更多关于提前加息的证据。
 
JPMorgan, the American investment bank, issued a fascinating report last week about gold producers’ costs of production. The report tracks on a quarterly basis cash costs for almost one-third of global gold production and all-in-sustaining costs for approximately one-quarter of global production.  

美国投资银行摩根大通上周发布了一份有趣的报告,内容是关于黄金生产商的生产成本。该报告以每个季度现金成本为基准跟进了全球几乎三分之一的黄金生产,以及全球接近四分之一生产的所有一切支持成本。
 
The report found that the 95th percentile of cash costs is currently around $1,100/oz.

报告发现95%的现金成本目前都保持在1,100美元/盎司左右。
 
But JP Morgan makes the very important point that it believes the actual marginal supplier to the gold market is scrap. Scrap contributes around 30% to total world gold supply.

但是, 摩根大通非常重要的一点是他相信黄金市场的实际边际供应商是废钢。其贡献达到世界黄金供应的30%左右。
 
The bank has observed that sizeable increases in scrap supply will come to the market with a sustained gold price above $1,220/oz.

银行已注意到,废钢供应将巨大增加进入市场,而金价会持续保持在1,220美元/盎司以上。
 
So we would say that a gold price much below the $1,220 level is unsustainable for very long because the market will lose 30% of its normal supply.

因此我们可以说,金价远低于1,220美元水平的状态是不能持续很长时间的,因为市场正常供应的30%会失去。
 
  Copper
  铜

Copper had a dramatic turn round last week on the back of Chinese buying and some short covering plus some fresh CTA and fund buying interest.

紧随着中国买盘、一些空头回补、新的期货交易顾问和买盘兴趣之后,上周的铜实现了戏剧性的华丽转身。
 
The bears seem to be on the run again and the market is now poised to move higher and challenge overhead resistance in and around the $7,210 to $7,230 per tonne level basis three months. Support has moved up and now stands in and around the $6,890 area. Copper rose 3.0% last week after falling by 1.8% in the previous week.

空头似乎要再次活跃起来,市场准备走高并挑战位于约7,210到7,230美元/公吨水平基本三个月的上方阻力。支撑上移目前位于6,890美元区域附近。继上周之前下跌1.8%之后上周铜上涨3.0%。
 
The Chinese physical market remains well supported, with physical copper in Shanghai trading at a 390 yuan premium to the September SHFE contract. The physical market in China has remained tight for the past week, with a 10,300 tonne fall in SHFE inventory last Friday reinforcing that view.

中国现货市场支撑良好,九月份上海期货交易所合约规定上海的现货铜交易价格为390元溢价交易。过去一周中国现货市场持续收紧,上周五上海期交所1.03万的库存量更加可以说明这一点。
 
Along with tighter physical markets there has also been an improvement in the SHFE-LME arbitrage which has narrowed to a $76/per tonne loss on Friday morning. On the LME there still remains a dominant holder of copper warrants with one participant in the 80-89% band for both cash and tom warrants.

随着的现货市场不断收紧,上周五早上海期货交易所-伦敦金属市场套利有所改善,亏损收窄至76美元/公吨。伦敦金属交易所铜认股权证仍保留一位主导持有者,一位参与者现金和汤姆认股权证的比例占80-89%。
 
China imported 360,000 tonnes of copper scrap in July. July’s imports were up 38.5% from June. Over the January-July period, scrap copper imports totalled 2.12 million tonnes, down 12.2% year on year.

七月份中国进口36万公吨的废铜。六月份上升38.5%。在整个一月份到七月份之间,废铜进口一共有212万公吨,比去年同期下降12.2%。

China also imported 244,959 tonnes of refined copper in July. This was down 16.07% year on year. Total imports in the seven month period were 2,125,508 tonnes, a rise of 27.92% year on year.

七月份中国也进口24.4959万公吨精炼铜。比去年同期下降16.07%。七个月的总进口量为2.125508百万公吨。比去年同期上涨27.92%。
 
Some commentators thought these figures were overall bearish. But we disagree.

一些评论家认为这些数据整体上很悲观。但是我们并不这样认为。
 
The latest Chinese trade data for July show a continued reduction in refined imports of copper since the highs seen in January, with the fall being attributed to recent scandal in Qingdao and a fall in demand for financing copper.

七月份最新的中国贸易数据显示:自从一月份的新高之后精炼铜进口一直持续减少,其下跌可归因于最近的青岛丑闻以及铜融资需求的下降。
 
But we would point out, however, that the reduction is more or less in line with normal seasonal patterns, while a fall in Chinese refined copper exports suggests that any initial panic over Qingdao has subsided.

然而,我们也要指出,其下跌也或多或少与正常的周期性模式保持者一致,而中国精炼铜出口下跌暗示出青岛丑闻带来的最初恐慌已慢慢消退。
 
Looking at the six month moving average, refined imports are levelling off and it instead looks like China is going through a period of digesting refined imports held in bond.

纵观六个月的移动平均线,精炼品进口在趋于稳定,反而看似中国在经历一个精炼品在债券上的吸收过程。
 
It’s also worth noting that falling Chinese refined imports haven’t been matched with rising LME inventory levels. With SHFE stocks also under pressure over the past few months, it would appear that the refined market in China remains tight and that any fall off in finance-related demand has had only a minimal impact.

值得一提的是中国精炼品进口不断下跌的趋势与伦敦金属交易所库存不断增加的情况并不相符。过去几个月上海期交所的库存也面临压力,看似中国的精炼品市场一直收紧,任何与金融相关的需求只是最小影响因素。

Copper scrap imports have meanwhile picked up strongly, with the six month moving average also turning around after a fairly pronounced and price-related downswing.

废铜进口量同时强劲回升,在相当明显的价格相关的下降趋势之后六个月的移动均线也实现回转。
 
Scrap may be helping to fill any shortfall in refined availability, which also lends weight to the argument that real Chinese demand is emerging as a factor rather than simply Chinese demand just being a financing game.

废铜也许可用来填补精炼铜可用性的缺口,同时也加强了这样的观点:中国需求正逐渐成为一个因素而不仅仅是一场融资游戏。

To conclude, we think that yet again the outside world has been too bearish about the Chinese economy and its capacity to grow and consume copper and other metals.

总而言之,我们认为外界对于中国经济以及其成长,铜及其他金属的消费前景并不看好。

Expert

Alex Heath
策略研究员

金融生涯长约40年,成为LME的一名银&锡交易员是Alex Heath职业生涯的起点。精通于LME基本金属在期货、期权等方面的风险及研究。曾供职于LM...
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