9/4/2014 1:35:22 PM
GKFX捷凯金融2014年9月3日 海外行情分析

Silver

白银


Silver continues to move down in its trading range. The top end of that range is now $20 to $20.10 while support now comes in at around the $19.20 to $19.00 level basis spot.

白银目前仍然处于下行趋势中,上方阻力区间位于20-20.10,而下方支撑位于19.20-19.00之间。

If this support level were to be decisively breached then the next support level would be in and around the $18.70 to $18.50 level basis spot. Silver fell 0.1% last week after falling by 1.9% in the previous week.

如果上述支撑位被果断突破,第二支撑位可看至18.70-18.50。继上上周白银下跌1.9%之后,上周白银跌幅为0.1%。

Silver did rally quite strongly on the back of the worsening Ukrainian situation with the price hitting a high of $19.90 on Thursday. But then a stronger dollar encouraged more short selling by CTAs and other traders on the Comex. When silver failed to break its 100 day moving average at $20.00 there was also a wave of stale bull selling.

受乌克兰局势恶化的影响,白银也强势回升,并于周四触及了19.90的高点。不过,美元的走强又诱使纽约商品交易所(COMEX)的商品期货交易员和投资者做空白银。因此,当白银跌破100日均线20.00的点位是引发了一波有一波的卖盘。

The encouraging feature to silver these days is the continuing strong buying being seen on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The SGE premium is currently trading at between $1.50 to $1.80 an oz.

值得庆幸的是,上海黄金交易所(SGE)持续的强劲买盘成为了利好白银的因素,目前上金所规定的溢价为1.5-1.8美金每盎司。

But as noted in last week’s report, China’s silver imports declined in July, to 97 tonnes from 107 tonnes in June. Year to date China has imported 912 tonnes up from 692 tonnes for the same period in 2013. Though this year’s import numbers are ahead of 2013 due to a strong January and February, the 2014 imports are still well below those of 2010–2012.

但是正如上周报告中所提到的,中国6月的白银进口数量从97吨上升至107吨,但在7月却有所下滑。对比同年今天,年累计从692吨上升至912。尽管1、2月份出现了大量进口,2014年的进口数量仍然大幅低于2010-2012年的水平。

For the silver price to move higher, China would need to ramp up imports very sharply. This seems unlikely because China’s current silver stocks are already fairly hefty.

然而由于中国目前的白银库存相当庞大,随着银价的升高,中国迅速增加进口数量的可能性较低。

In fact for silver the bias lies in China importing less metal in the second half of this year than in the first half. This is based on the fact that since 2011, the second half has been characterised by seasonal weakness, with silver imports declining month on month from September through to December.

事实上,在中国市场存在着下半年金属进口数量将不及上半年的偏见。原因在于自2011年以来,受到季节性疲软的影响,9月至12月的白银进口量呈下滑趋势。

Of course, a sharp fall in the silver price would alter this trend. We suspect that some of the strong buying we are now seeing in Shanghai is to take advantage of the lower price. The year to date average for silver has been $20.14. But just to prove that everything is relative, the spot silver price averaged $23.80 in 2013.

当然,一旦白银价格猛跌这一局面将得到扭转。因此我们怀疑目前上金所中的强劲买盘是受到了低价的吸引。截至今日,白银今年的均价为20.14。凡事都有相对性,2013年的现货白银价格均价为23.8。

Gold

黄金

Chinese and Asian buying seems to be come into the market when gold approaches the $1,280 area. But as soon as we approach the $1,290 area or above we now see waves of producer selling and selling by CTAs and macro funds. This makes sense from a technical point of view as the 100 day moving average comes in at around $1,294.75 and the 100 day moving average comes in at around $1,285.

当金价接近1280时,中国和亚洲的买盘开始进入市场,而一旦价格趋近1290及其上方,我们可以看到生产商、商品期货交易员和基金卖盘的介入。从技术面来看,这是由于100日均线位于1294.75附近,而200日均线位于1285附近。

According to the latest Commitment of Traders Report, net gold longs on Comex were reduced again by no less than 2.4 million ozs in the week up to 26 August. Gross shorts increased by around 1.3 million ozs and gross longs reduced by 1.1 million oz. Holdings in the SPDR gold ETF also fell during this period by around four tonnes. Gold rose 0.7% last week after falling by 1.4% in the previous week.

根据最新的持仓报告,截止8月26日,COMEX黄金净多头又减少了至少2.4百万盎司,在空头增加1.3百万盎司的同时多头减少了1.1百万盎司。SPDR和ETF的持仓量在此期间同样下跌了4吨。黄金继前周下跌1.4%之后,于上周上涨0.7%。

As a result of the worsening Ukrainian situation the borrowing costs for some European governments have moved down to all-time lows as the market is starting to price in a greater probability of the ECB embarking on a QE stimulus programme as growth in the euro zone continues to slow. German 10-year government bond yields dropped to 0.87% late last week. At the beginning of 2014 the yield was 1.9%.

由于乌克兰局势的恶化,欧元区经济的放缓,市场对欧央行推出QE的预期升温,使得欧洲国债收益率已经降至了历史低点。德国10年期国债收益率在上周跌至0.87%,而在2014年年初时为1.9%。

An ECB QE programme is likely to provide liquidity to the financial system more broadly than just the European Union but many economists think that the effect will be much less positive for gold than the Fed’s QE programmes have been. This is mainly because the Euro is not the reserve currency of the world. As a result, the main benefit should be seen in gold denominated in Euros rather than dollars.

尽管QE会给欧元区(甚至更广地域)的金融系统注入流动性,但是不少经济学家认为,QE对黄金的利好作用远不及美联储的QE计划。原因在于欧元作为全球外汇储备的影响力远不及美元,因此欧版QE的影响范围将集中在欧元上而非以美元计价的黄金。

Vladimir Putin has called for talks on the “statehood” of southeast Ukraine. This comment will heighten fears that Moscow is seeking the partition of the Ukraine. But how positive it will be for gold in the short to medium term remains to be seen.

弗拉基米尔·普京呼吁乌克兰南部独立成果。这一言论将加剧市场对于莫斯科正在意图分裂乌克兰的担忧。然而,这会否对黄金中短期走势构成利好仍然有待市场验证。

There will be no military action taken by NATO as the commitment to defend NATO states does not extend to the Ukraine which is not a member of NATO. So sanctions are the only weapon that can be used against the Russians.

由于乌克兰尚未成为北约成员国,因此北约将不会向乌克兰派兵。因此,经济制裁目前是唯一可以用来对付俄罗斯的武器。

Chinese gold imports in July slowed to only 21.1 tonnes. They were
52.3 tonnes in May and 36.4 tonnes in June. This decline comes as no surprise given that the SGE premium was around zero for most of July. The only published data of gold entering China is Hong Kong export data. Over 90% of China’s gold is imported via Hong Kong.

中国7月黄金进口量在21.1吨,而5月和6月的进口量分别为52.3和36.4吨,然而在上海黄金交易所7月溢价接近于零的前提,这一下滑就变得顺理成章。中国唯一对外公布的黄金进口数据是由香港出口的数据,而超过90%的中国黄金是通过香港进口的。

Year to date China’s gold imports are now lower than 2013 levels despite a strong start to 2014. The strong start to 2014 was thanks to a low gold price. Gold averaged $1,244 in January and $1,222 in December and there was also strong demand leading up to the Chinese New Year.

截止今日,尽管年初出现了一波购金潮,但今年中国的黄金进口量仍然低于2013年的水平,而年初的这一波购金潮得益于黄金的低价。12月和1月份时黄金均价在1222和1244左右,当时也正逢中国新年的需求高峰。

At the current rate China will have imported around 770 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong in 2014 – down from 1,108 tonnes in 2013.

在当前价格,对比中国去年从香港进口的1108吨黄金,今年将下滑至770吨左右。

We expect the August number to be marginally higher month on month. This is because the SGE premium has moved up to around $2/oz in August.

考虑到上海黄金交易所的8月溢价上升至了2美元每盎司,我们预计8月份的进口量对比上月将会小幅上升。

More broadly, we believe it will be difficult for Asia as a whole to match the gold demand of last year – especially in H2:14. India has seen little relaxation of its gold import duties. But, perhaps more importantly, the big difference between 2014 and 2013 is that gold plummeted from $1,600 to $1,200 between April and June last year, which saw gold demand in many Asia countries accelerate in the second half.

更广泛地说,我们相信作为一个整体亚洲很难达到去年的黄金需求量——尤其是在今年第二季度。印度稍稍放宽了对于黄金进口关税的限制。但是,更重要的是,对比今年,去年金价在4月至6月期间,经历从1600跌至1200的过程,这导致了亚洲多数国家在下半年对黄金的需求出现爆发式增涨。

We are unlikely to see a similar scenario this year. This is because market expectations have adjusted to the lower gold price and for demand to really accelerate we would need still lower prices.

而这一情形我们很难在今年看到,这是由于市场对于金价的预期降至了更低的水平,这意味着我们需要更低的金价才能加速市场对黄金的需求。

Copper

Copper is under pressure again on the back of fears about the slowing Chinese economy and now a Eurozone where the industrial recovery has slowed to a standstill.

在中国经济放缓,欧元区工业复苏陷入停滞的前提下,铜再次面临了下行风险。

The Chinese government’s official purchasing manager’s index, which measures the health of factory activity, fell for the first time since February. It fell from a two-year high of 51.7 in July to 51.1 in August. The HSBC index fell to 50.2 in August, down from an 18-month high in July of 51.7. This was the weakest reading in three months. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in Chinese manufacturing, while a figure below 50 indicates contraction.

作为能反映工厂健康程度的指标,中国官方PMI出现了今年2月份以来的首次下滑,具体数据显示,PMI从7月份的2年高点51.7下滑至8月份的51.1。而中国汇丰PMI也从7月的18个月高点51.7下滑至8月的50.2,这刷新了近3个月来的最低水平,因为以50为分水岭,50上方意味着经济扩张,而50下方意味着经济萎缩。

Technically speaking, overhead resistance has now moved down and now stands in and around the $7,020 to $7,030 per tonne area basis three months while support is expected to come in at around the $6,900 per tonne area basis three months.

从技术面来看,近三个月的阻力位下移至了7020-7030之间,而支撑位则位于6900附近。

The bears point to the fact that LME copper stocks rose last week by a net 2,100 tonnes. This means that August showed the first monthly gain in LME stocks (a net gain of 1,700 tonnes) since June 2013. Copper stocks on Comex also rose 1,200 tonnes week on week. In contrast stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 6,800 tonnes last week.

铜的下跌真实反映了上周伦敦金属交易所(LME)的净库存增加了2100吨。这意味LME净库存(净增长1200吨)完成了自2013年6月以来的首次增涨。相对的,上海期货交易所的库存上周下降了6800吨。

The bulls argue that LME stocks are so low that stocks increasing by a few thousand tonnes a month is neither here nor there.

不过,买方认为,LME库存一个月内增加了几千吨对行情的不痛不痒的。

On Friday copper had a backwardation of $27 per tonne versus a backwardation of $22 per tonne on the previous Friday. Copper fell 1.3% last week after rising by 3.0% in the previous week.

对比上一个周五现货铜22美元每吨,周五的现货溢价上升至了27美元每吨,而铜价也从前一周3.0%的涨幅扭转为上周1.3%的跌幅。

There is a large dominant position holder in copper. This position has been developed, it is thought, by one party utilising reverse cancellations and re-warranting of copper already sitting in LME warehouses.

通过在LME逆向注销和认股权证,铜市中出现了一位主导持有者。

The dominant position holder is able to squeeze the spreads and pushing the forward curves into backwardations. In copper, the data reveals that the dominant warrants holder is also a net long in the near-dated positions, and has not only effectively squeezed the spreads in August but created the conditions for last week’s price rally.

主导持有者有能力收紧价差,并使远期收益出现现货溢价。具体数据显示,铜的认股权证持有者持有了大量的净多头,这将不仅会挤压8月的价差,还导致了上周价格的回升。

But the bears point out that it has always been the case that a market squeeze can only support prices for as long as the fundamentals remain firm.

但是卖方力量认为,在基本面保持稳定的情况下,市场紧缩将支撑着价格。

If supply starts to increase and demand begins to slacken as seems to be happening in China and Europe, then the bears should win in the end and the dominant position holder will withdraw from trying to squeeze the market.

一旦中国和欧洲的需求开始增加,供给有所放宽,卖方将获得最终的胜利,而主导持有者也将退出市场。

And this is why the bears are still looking for $6,500 per tonne in coming weeks.

这是卖方在未来几周内期待价格能触及6500的理由。

 

Expert

Alex Heath
策略研究员

金融生涯长约40年,成为LME的一名银&锡交易员是Alex Heath职业生涯的起点。精通于LME基本金属在期货、期权等方面的风险及研究。曾供职于LM...
详细