9/10/2014 3:03:37 PM
GKFX捷凯金融2014年9月10日 海外行情分析

Good morning everyone and welcome to this week’s look at the Silver ,Gold and copper markets with GKFX.

各位早上好,欢迎收看GKFX带来的本周白银、黄金和铜的市场分析。


  This weeks receding geo-political risks and the continuing strength in US dollar have continued to weigh on performance of gold and silver in dollar terms. However, if the benign scenario that is priced into global equities and other cyclical assets proves to be wrong then the current low levels being experienced in the precious metals and gold in particular could prove to be an effective offset hedge.

本周随着地缘政治风险降温以及美元持续强势,使得以美元计价的黄金和白银承压。然而,如果全球股票和周期性资产的良性定价被证明是错误的,那么目前正处于低价的贵金属(尤其是黄金)将的被证明是一种有效对冲。


  Silver

白银

Silver’s trading range has moved sharply lower over the last week. Overhead resistance is now sitting at around the $19.80 to $19.90 level basis spot while good support is probably to be found in and around the $19.00 to $18.50 level. Silver fell 1.7% last week after falling by 0.1% in the previous week.

白银的交易区间对比上周出现了明显的下滑。上方阻力位可分别关注19.80和19.90,而有效支撑位可看19.00和18.50附近。白银继前一周下跌0.1%后,上周跌1.7%。

From a technical point of view the next support sits $19.00 followed closely by $18.72. This is the support line dating back to July 2013. Then the next level comes in at $18.62.This was the low hit in May this year. But the really important level is seen as being $18.22. This was the June 2013 pivot level. After that there is very little in way of support.

从技术面来看,在19.00之后的下一个有效支撑位是18.72。该点位同时也是2013年7月的支撑位。再向下可看今年5月的低点18.62。然而,真正的关键点位是2013年6月的支点点位18.22,而其下方几乎鲜有支撑。

Most analysts believe that silver’s fundamentals are weak and that the price bias is to the downside. But that doesn’t mean you should run out and short silver.

大多数分析师认为,白银的基本面较弱,且市场存在看空白银的倾向。但这并不意味着你需要全盘抛出或是做空白银。

The silver market is already full of shorts and we could well see some substantial short covering rallies over coming days. These rallies are easy enough start off.

白银市场中已经存在超卖迹象,我们将在未来几天内看到空头回补,这些反弹将很容易开始。

All you need is for one or two macro funds to begin supporting a price level. Let’s say for the sake of illustration that the levels chosen to support are $19.00 and $18.80. Combined with this price support operation the funds also buy lots of call options in the $19.20 and $19.30 area. The trap is thus set.

你需要的仅仅是一到两个即将触及支撑位的宏观基金。为了方便说明,我们如此设置交易策略,假设支撑位在19.00和18.80,在该价格买入基金的同时,在19.20和19.30买入大量的看涨期权。

As the shorts sell and fail to decisively break, say, $19.00 they begin to cover in and the price begins to rise.

由于空头回补,价格无法再向下突破,假设在19.00时价格开始回升。

The option grantors will enter the market and buy some forward metal as a bit more cover for their calls. That helps to push the price a bit higher.

期权委托人为了轧平看涨期权会选择买入一些远期金属合约,这会帮助推升价格。

And then with any luck you will see many more shorts decide to cover in their positions. This in turn will trigger off more buying from the option granters and it may also trigger off some CTA buying. And then before you know it the price has put on 10 to 15 cents an oz and created a more bullish technical picture.

接下来运气好的话,你会看见更多的空头回补头寸。这会反过来引发更多的委托人买进,甚至还可能买进CTA。价格将因此行长10-15美分每盎司,并形成一个更为乐观的上升形态。

In the medium term analysts expect the current trend of destocking and price appreciation to resume as the spluttering global economic recovery gathers momentum. Although mining supply remains strong, total supply is more likely to continue to decline unless higher prices induce further recycling and scrap supplies. As we noted in a recent review, In 2013, according to data from the Silver Institute, despite a new record high for mining supply, total supplies of silver declined about 2.5% due to a sharp reduction in recycling on the back of the price decline.

从中长期技术面来看,分析师们认为,随着全球经济复苏断断续续的增强,当前的去库存和升值的趋势仍将继续。尽管采矿业供应仍然强劲,但是除非价格进一步上涨并引发废弃和回收,总供给有极大可能会持续下滑。正如我们在近期回顾中提到的,根据世界白银协会(The Silver Institute)的数据,撇除采矿业供应量的新高,受到价格下跌而回收量剧烈减少的影响,2013年白银的总供应量下滑了2.5%。

So in conclusion what we are saying is that we think there is very little value to be had by adding new shorts at current price levels.

因此,我们并不认为在当前的价格水平继续做空是一件有价值的事。

Gold

黄金

The surprise rate cut of 10bps by the ECB led to the sharpest weekly drop in the Euro since the week ending January 31 while gold in USD terms declined 1.5%. after rising by 0.7% in the previous week.

欧央行意外降息10个基点,导致了自1月31日那周以来的最大跌幅的,而以美元计价的黄金也下跌了1.5%,在此之前的一周黄金上涨了0.7个百分点。

Gold’s trading range has also moved sharply lower. Overhead resistance is now put at the $1,290 to $1,300 level basis spot while support is seen in in and around the $1,250 to $1,240 area.

黄金的交易区间也因此下调,上方阻力可看1290和1300,而支撑位于1250和1240附近。

The yellow metal moved lower on Monday on the back of a strong dollar and a news report saying the San Francisco Fed research team believe , and I quote :

本周一黄金价格进一步下跌,原因在于旧金山联储发布的研究报告,其中提到:

"...Low volatility across financial markets may signal investors are underestimating how quickly the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates".

“金融市场的低波动性可能说明了,投资者低估了美联储未来加息的速度。”

This triggered off a deeper sell-off gold taking it to a fresh three month low of $1252.05. Eventually the session closed out a little firmer around $1257.

这触发了黄金更低的卖盘,创下了3个月来的新低1252.05,并报收于1257。

It seems that gold investors are resigned to the fact that the US economy is in recovery mode and were prepared to overlook one poor payroll result.

这说明投资者更加确定美国经济正处于复苏状态,并准备淡化上周表现不佳的非农报告。


  That said of course of course Gold could still gain haven demand if Ukraine ceasefire proves to be short-lived. The fragile ceasefire between Ukraine and Russian-supported rebels appears to be under threat already after multiple reports of shelling between the two sides so bears beware as the geopolitical premium that has been all but been removed from gold prices of late could very quickly return if the ceasefire completely falters.

当然,如果乌克兰停火协议被撕毁,黄金可能会重回避险天堂的宝座。俄乌之间脆弱的停火协议随着双方边界的炮击已经出现了动摇,因此空头需要注意,地缘政治的风险溢价可能已经消失,如果停火协议彻底撕毁,黄金价格将会迅速回升。


  Open interest in New York Comex futures and options is now close its lowest in five years as gains in the U.S. economy, the dollar and equities take investor interest away from gold.

由于美国经济的走强,纽约商品交易所(COMEX)中未平仓的期货和期权合约正接近五年来的低点,美元和股票很明显吸引走了部分黄金投资者的兴趣。


  The net-long position in gold declined 20% to 74,031 futures and options contracts in the week ended September the 2nd, the lowest since June 17 according to the CFTC. Short positions, however, rose by 44% during the same period.

根据商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的报告,截止上周9月2日,黄金期货和期权的净多头头寸下滑了20%至74031,创下了自6月17日以来的最低水平。同时,空头头寸增幅达44%。


  The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund and a good measure of investor sentiment, said on Friday that its holdings fell 4.78 tonnes to 785.73 tonnes on Thursday. This was the biggest one-day fall since April 16.

全球最大的黄金上市交易基金(ETF)——SPDR Gold Trust基金公司在上周五的报告中表示,9月4日黄金持仓量较前一个交易日减少4.78公吨至785.73公吨,是自4月16日以来的最大单日跌幅。


  The market also continues to see aggressive macro fund selling whenever gold rallies in any volume and we are also seeing continuing producer forward selling.

无论黄金出现了多大的回调,市场中仍能继续看到宏观基金在积极地抛售,而我们也将继续看到生产商在卖出远期合约。

Some commentators seem shocked that producers would be selling. But my response is that it makes very good sense to be selling and locking in a forward price well above your own production cost in this fragile economic climate.

部分评论惊讶于生产商的卖出行为。但我认为,在当前脆弱的经济环境下,卖出比生产价格更低价格的远期合约是一个明智的选择。

JPMorgan Chase Bank issued a fascinating report recently about gold producers’ costs of production. The bank tracks on a quarterly basis the cash costs for almost one-third of global gold production and the all-in-sustaining costs for approximately one-quarter of global production.

摩根大通近期发表了一篇有关黄金生产成本的精彩报告,他们以季度为单位,追踪了全球近三分之一的黄金生产商的现金成本,和近四分之一全球生产商的总维持成本。

From their sample set, the 95th percentile of cash costs is currently $1,100/oz. But the bank’s analysts make the very crucial observation that the actual marginal supplier to the gold market is scrap.

从这个例子可以看出,95%的现金成本目前为$1,100/oz。但是银行的分析师经过重要的观察发现黄金的实际边际供应商是零碎黄金。

Scrap gold contributes around 30% to global gold supply. Physical gold market observations suggest that sizeable increases in scrap supply come onto the market when the sustained gold price is above $1,220/oz.

碎黄金在全球黄金供应中所占比例大概为30%。实物黄金市场观察结果表明黄金价格稳定在高于$1,220/oz之时,废钢市场供应的大量增加才会进军市场。

The longer the price stays below $1,220 the quicker scrap supply dries up. And after a bit the laws of supply and demand kick in and, all other things being equal, the price begins to rise again.

价格低于$1,220的时间越长,这些黄金消耗的就越快。供需规则一旦生效,其它条件若相同,那么价格就再次开始回升。

Interestingly enough, the Chinese are beginning to buy gold again at these lower levels. The Shanghai Gold Exchange premium over loco London has risen to the $4 to $5 an oz range from $3 in recent sessions. Some Chinese bullion dealers, we are told, are recommending some scale down buying to their clients now. They see the floor as being around the $1,250 area basis spot.

有趣的是,中国又再次以低价买入黄金了。近日,上海黄金交易所溢价在伦敦当地的价格已从$3上升到$4到$5区间。我们被告知,一些中国交易商在向他们的客户推荐减少一定规模的买入。他们把$1,250区域基本点左右看作是基底。

Unfortunately, Chinese and Indian demand is not strong enough to push gold prices higher. But Asian buying may prove strong enough to hold prices in and around $1,250 area. Additionally the so-called ‘Love Trade’ from Asia, where the Indian and Chinese population bought gold jewelry for their loved ones is cited as one of the reasons why gold climbed to $1900 in 2011. The slowdown in GDP per capita in these countries over the past three years, has impacted the ‘Love Trade’, and now India is on the way back up now, so that is also positive for the gold price moving forward again.

不幸的是,仅凭中国和印度的需求还足以把黄金价格拉高。但是亚洲买盘也许证明了其强劲势头能够撑起$1,250区域左右的价格, 此外,在亚洲的所谓“Love Trade”,方面,中国人和印度人为爱人购买黄金首饰也是2011年黄金价格攀升至$1900的原因。过去三年内这些国家人均GDP的下滑已经影响到‘Love Trade’,目前印度市场正在恢复,因此也有利于金价的再次反弹。

In the meantime, we expect price rallies to be scale up sold into by the macro funds and the producers. U.S. short-term interest rate futures contracts rose on Friday after the non-farm employment report was released. The current reasoning is that the Fed will not raise interest rates until the second half of 2015. But rates are going to rise whether or not it is in the first half of 2015 or the second half and Rising real interest rates are a negative for gold.

与此同时,我们预计价格反弹会按比例增加由宏观基金及生产商卖出。周五非农就业报告公布之后美国短期利率期货合约有所增加,按照目前的推理,美联储直到2015年下半年才会加息。但是不管是2015年上半年还是下半年利率都会上涨,且实际利率的上升对黄金来说也有负面影响。

But to end on a more bullish note, it is worth pointing out that historically September is gold's best performing month, returning +2.16% on average since 1969. So seasonality may help to provide some support for gold prices this month. And you may also see a short covering rally develop before the month is out.

但更加乐观的一面是,有必要指出历史上9月份都是黄金业绩最好的一个月,自1969年以来平均返回+2.16%。因此本月的季节性表现也有助于为黄金价格提供支撑。并且,月前你也可能会看到一波空头回补的反弹。

Finally, some local news.

最后为您呈现一些当地新闻。

The operator of the London gold price benchmark said on Thursday it has formally started the process to find a new administrator for the century-old mechanism that will halt the telephone call that four institutions enter twice a day in favour of an electronic solution.

伦敦黄金价格基准运营商周四表示他已经启动寻找一轮新的管理员世纪机制的流程,该体制支持电子解决方案阻止四个机构每天两次的电话进入。

The London Gold Market Fixing, along with the London Bullion Market Association, said in a statement that the choice will be announced in October, and its implementation will be completed by the end of this year.

伦敦黄金市场议定金价以及伦敦金银市场协会在一份声明中表示,决定会在10月份公布,并在今年年底前实施完毕。

Moving on to Copper.

The Red metal seems to be consolidating. Good support seems to be developing in and around the $6,880 area basis three months while there is still strong overhead resistance in and around the $7,010 area. Copper fell 0.1% last week after falling by 1.3% in the previous week.

红铜似乎在巩固过程中。良好的支撑位于$6,880区域左右基础三个月,而强劲的上方阻位位于$7,010区域左右。铜在上周之前下跌1.3%之后上周铜下跌0.1%。

Good buying interest always seem to develop in and around the $6,920 area. The spreads still remain tight both in the nearbys and the farther dated ones. Chinese traders have been sellers of upside January call options in the market this week.

良好的买盘兴趣似乎徘徊在$6,920区域左右。不管在近期还是较长时间之前价差仍然持收紧状态。

The copper market seems to have ignored the weak U.S. jobs data on Friday but seems to have some faith that the ECB’s move to cut interest rates will help to spur an economic revival in Europe. Europe consumes around 20% of global copper production.

铜市场上周五似乎已忽略了美国的就业数据,但看似诚心相信欧洲央行降低利率有助于促进欧洲经济的复苏。欧洲消耗全球铜生产的20%左右。

And the market seems to be slightly less concerned about Chinese growth prospects this year. One reason for this is the fact that copper supplies in China still seem to be fairly tight. In fact some analysts estimate that, thanks to SRB stockpiling earlier this year, the Chinese copper market was in a 50,000 tonne deficit during the first eight months of this year.

市场对今年的中国经济增长前景不那么关心。一个原因是中国的铜供应似乎相当紧张。事实上,一些分析师估计,多亏了今年早些时候国储局的储备,中国铜市场在今年前8个月内有5万公吨的赤字。


  Prices are lower this morning as the market is disappointed at the Chinese copper import figures. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper fabricated products totalled 340,000 tonnes in August, down 12.3% year-on-year and flat month-on-month.

随着市场对中国的铜进口数据的失望,今早价格走低。中国的未锻造铜进口以及铜制造产品8月份总值达34万, 比去年同比下降12.3%且比上月相比呈环比持平状态。


  China's consumption of refined copper for the rest of 2014 probably now hinges on new orders from the power sector. Investment in this sector recorded a rare fall in the first half of the year. Tight credit conditions have cut demand from smaller end-users. The power sector accounted for nearly half of copper demand last year in China.

2014年剩下的时间里中国精炼铜的消耗很可能取决于电力部门的新订单。今年上半年记录显示该领域的投资出现了罕见的下跌现象。借贷紧缩缩小了来自小型终端用户的需求。去年中国电力产业铜的需求几乎占据50%。


  Investment in new power networks had been expected to rise more than 10 percent this year, industry sources say. But in the first half investment actually fell 0.6 percent from a year before, according to data from the China Electricity Council.

业内人士称,新电网领域的投资预计今年上涨10%以上。但是据中国电力企业联合会的数据显示,前半年投资实际上比前一年下跌0.6%。


  Yang Changhua, a senior analyst at the research firm Antaike Information Development said last week that: "If investment in the power sector doesn't rise in the second half, we'll have to adjust down our consumption forecast for 2014."

北京安泰科信息开发有限公司高级分析师杨昌华上周表示:“若电力产业投资在下半年不能增加,我们将不得不调整我们2014年的消费预期。”


  Antaike has forecast that China's consumption of refined copper would rise 6.7 percent from last year to 8.75 million tonnes. The State Grid Corp of China, the dominant investor in power networks, said in May it was being audited, which industry sources said was likely to have slowed network investment. It was unclear what the aim of the audit was.

安泰科预测,中国精炼铜的消耗将比去年增加6.7%至875万公吨。中国国家电网公司是电网领域的占主导地位的投资者,5月份他们在审核,业内人士称中国国家电网公司很有可能会减缓网络投资。目前尚不清楚审计的目的何在。


  In the meantime would anticipate that prices will drift lower in the coming sessions before attracting any real bargain buying.

同时,预测接下来价格会在吸引任何真正的逢低买盘之前进行下调。

Expert

Alex Heath
策略研究员

金融生涯长约40年,成为LME的一名银&锡交易员是Alex Heath职业生涯的起点。精通于LME基本金属在期货、期权等方面的风险及研究。曾供职于LM...
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