12/3/2015 4:17:54 PM
捷凯金融 - 中国PMI,欧元区和瑞士经济

Hello everyone and welcome to this week’s edition of macro corner brought to you by GKFX.

大家好!欢迎来到本周GKFX为您带来的宏观视角。

Chinese PMI hits three year low

中国PMI数据创三年来新低

First off we start with China where Manufacturing activity hit a three-year low last month. China's National Bureau of Statistics' official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) hit 49.6 in November. The data which was released today (Tuesday) was the lowest reading of the index since August 2012 and was 0.2 lower than October’s figure. This is now the fourth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector where a reading below 50 points suggests a decline in activity on a monthly basis while a reading above signifies an expansion.

首先,我们来看看中国的制造业活动情况,上个月中国PMI创三年来新低。中国国家统计局发布的官方数据表明,11月份的PMI数值为49.6。今天(星期二)发布的这一数据,为2012年8月以来值最低的一次,与今年10月份相比,还下降了0.2。这是制造业指数连续第4个月指数跌破50大关,数值低于50表示制造业活跃度下降,处于收缩状态,数值高于50预示制造业处于扩张状态。 

Commenting on the data, ANZ economists Li-Gang Liu and Louis Lam, said: and here we quote: "With soft growth momentum and deflation pressures creeping up, we expect the authorities to further ease monetary policy and continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in order to prevent further slowdown of the economy in 2016." and here we end the quote.

澳新银行(ANZ)的经济学家刘利刚(Li-Gang Liu)和路易斯•兰姆(Louis Lam)认为,“由于增长势头温和,通缩压力又慢慢逼近,我们希望当局进一步放松货币政策,继续实施扩张性的财政政策,以防止2016年经济进一步下滑。”

Separately, we saw  the Caixin/Market China Manufacturing PMI edge up to 48.6 in November, beating market expectations of 48.3. This index has shown contraction now for nine straight months.

另外,我们看到财新11月中国制造业PMI上升到48.6,打败了之前市场预期的48.3。这一指数表示,制造业已经连续收缩了9个月。

As we have noted though in past reports, the private sector Caixin survey focuses more on small-to-medium-sized private firms. These firms are showing more stress from the prolonged economic slowdown and high financing costs whereas the official PMI looks more at the larger, state-owned firms.

从过去的报告中我们可以看出,关于私营部分,财新调查的焦点放在中小私营企业上。经济的持续放缓给这些企业带来越来越多的压力,特别是融资成本飙升,而官方的PMI关注更多的是大型国企。

The official PMI's sub-indexes though showed widespread weakness in manufacturing with new orders - a proxy for domestic and foreign demand - down 0.5 points to 49.8. and with Exports contracting to 46.4 for the 14th straight month. Input prices declined 3.3 points to 41.1.

官方PMI分类指数显示,制造业新订单状况整体表现疲弱,降到49.8,这一指数也是国内外需求的风向标。出口降到46.4,连续第14个月下滑。购进价格指数下滑了3.3,降为41.1.

ANZ economists said all this points to persistent deflation in upstream prices and this will add pressure to factory gate prices and industrial profits.

澳新银行的经济学家称,这都表明上游价格持续通缩,工厂出厂价和产业利润都会承压。

Service sector activity though has helped offset the wider effects of weakness in manufacturing. The sector reading improved again with the official non-manufacturing PMI up half an index point to 53.6. Remember too that the services sector is the biggest contributor to China's GDP.

但是,服务行业的活跃程度可以在一定程度上抵消制造业疲弱带来的不利影响。服务业的指数又上升了,官方的非制造业PMI也上升到了53.6。还要记住的是,服务行业是中国GDP的主要贡献者。

However despite a long series of stimulus measures, including cutting interest rates six times since November last year, this muted monthly data for October suggests that China's economic momentum continues to slow.

但是,尽管采取了一系列刺激政策,包括自去年11月份以来的6次降息,但是10月份的平淡数据表明,中国经济发展势头依然缓慢。

Some analysts expect China's economy will bottom out in the fourth quarter as a burst of stimulus measures rolled out by Beijing gradually takes effect. But many equally remain wary about the outlook.

有些分析师认为,第四季度中国经济会触底反弹,因为北京方面采取的各项刺激政策逐渐开始生效。但同样也有分析师对这一前景持谨慎态度。

China's Premier Li Keqiang said last week that China was on track to reach its economic growth target of about 7 percent this year. He also stressed that the economy was going through adjustments to maintain reasonable medium- to long-term growth.

上周中国总理李克强说,中国正稳步迈向今年7%的经济增长目标。他还强调到,中国经济正在经历调整,从而保持合理的中长期增长。

But that would still mark China's weakest economic expansion in a quarter of a century. And some analysts believe real growth levels are much weaker than official data would suggest.

但这依然标志着,这是25年来中国经济扩张最慢的时候。同时有些分析师还认为,实际增长水平远远低于官方给出的数据。

Yesterday as predicted the IMF added the Chinese Yuan to its Special Drawing Rights basket yesterday, but what does that mean for the currency?

昨天,正如预期所言,IMF宣布把人民币加入SDR货币篮子,那么这意味着什么?

1) Effective Oct. 1, 2016, the renminbi will officially be recognized as a reserve currency, meaning central banks will have an alternative for foreign exchange reserves.

1)该决议于2016年10月1日正式生效。届时,人民币将被正式认可为储备货币,各国央行会新增人民币进入外汇储备。

2) The basket's currency weighting will get mixed up, with the euro seeing the biggest percentage drop from the new formula.

2)SDR货币篮子的货币权重将重新调整,从新的公式来看,欧元的权重下降幅度最大。

3) The yuan also meets criteria of being "freely usable," or widely used for international payments and in foreign exchange markets, boosting China's influence in the global economy.

3)人民币也符合“可自由使用”的标准,或可广泛用于国际支付和外汇市场,有助于提升中国在全球经济中的影响。

The yuan will have 10.92% weighting. The U.S. dollar's weighting will fall to 41.73% from 41.9%, the euro's weighting drops all the way to 30.93% from 37.4%, the pound to 8.09% from 11.3%, and the yen to 8.33% from 9.4%.

人民币的权重为10.92%。美元权重从41.9%将为41.73%,欧元权重从37.4%直降为30.93%,英镑权重从11.3%降为8.09%,日元权重从9.4%降为8.33%。

Euro zone November factory growth at 19-month high but still weak

欧元区11月份的制造业增长为19个越来最高,但整体依然疲弱。

Turning now to the Euro Zone

现在来看欧元区。

Manufacturing growth picked up to a 19-month high in November, data released on Tuesday (today) showed. But, the pace of growth is still relatively modest, adding further pressure for the European Central Bank to ease policy again.

今天(星期二)发布的数据显示,11月制造业增长创下19个月来的最高值。但是,增长的步伐依然相对温和,进一步增加了欧洲央行再次放松政策的压力。

That came despite firms cutting prices for a third month and as a weaker euro boosted exports. Markit's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.8 in November from October's 52.3. The index has now held above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for well over two years.

尽管企业已经持续3个月降价,欧元贬值促进了出口,但结果依然如此。11月Markit PMI终值从10月份的52.3 上升到了52.8 。这一指数现在处于50以上,把过去两年多里的增长和紧缩分隔开来。

As part of its battle to stimulate growth and inflation to its target of 2% the ECB has been pumping 60 billion euros a month of new money into the economy since March. Inflation in October was a miniscule 0.1%.

为了刺激增长,并达到2%的通胀目标,欧洲央行从3月份开始,每月给欧洲市场注入600亿欧元。10月份的通胀水平微乎其微,只有0.1%。

But the market expects the ECB to expand and extend its quantitative easing programme when policymakers meet on Thursday. It should also cut its deposit rate further into negative territory. This effectively increases the amount banks have to pay to park money overnight.

但是市场希望本周四政策会议上,欧洲央行会延长并扩展其量化宽松计划,并进一步降低利率,甚至降为负值。这将明显地增加银行隔夜放置资金的成本。

Chris Williamson, the chief economist at survey compiler Markit, said: and here we quote: "With growth remaining modest, prices falling and manufacturing still some 10 percent smaller than its pre-crisis peak, the scene is set for the ECB to unleash further stimulus at its December meeting to ensure momentum continues to build." and here we end the quote.

调查编撰机构Markit的首席经济学学家Chris Williamson表示,“增长继续不愠不火,价格下滑和制造业情况依然比危机前的峰值低10个百分点,这种情况是让欧洲央行在12月份的会议上进一步释放刺激政策,以确保增长继续。”

Swiss economy needs further policy action

瑞士经济需要进一步的政策支持。

The Swiss GDP figure release today (Tuesday) also revealed that growth stalled in Q3 and November’s manufacturing PMI points to worse to come. This raises the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will increase its policy support in the coming months.

今天(星期二)发布的瑞士GDP数字显示,第三季度增长停滞,11月的制造业PMI暗示往后发展情况会更加糟糕。这增加了瑞士国家银行(SNB)在未来几个月增加政策扶持的可能性。

The GDP outturn was worse than the consensus forecast of a 0.2% quarterly rise. But better than Capital Economics own expectation of a small contraction. Together with revisions to earlier data, it left the annual growth rate at a two-and-a-half-year low of 0.8%.

GDP产量季度增长普遍预计会上涨0.2%,然而实际情况比预期糟糕。但与凯投宏观预期的小幅收缩相比,实际情况又要乐观一些。与之前修订的数据相比,凯投宏观的年增长率为两年半以来的最低值0.8%。

On the face of it, the breakdown was encouraging. Consumer spending rose by 0.4%. This suggests that deflation has yet to have a negative effect. 

对此,实际情况并非如此反倒让人高兴。消费支出增长了0.4%。这表示通缩的消极作用还没开始显现。

And net exports made a large positive contribution to GDP (1.8ppts) despite the strength of the Swiss franc. Exports surged by 5.4% q/q, mainly reflecting a sharp increase in the volatile valuables component. But excluding that, exports still increased by 0.6%.

尽管瑞士法郎还很强势,净出口对GDP的积极贡献(1.8个百分点)还是非常明显的。季度出口增长5.4%,主要反映在不稳定的贵重物品上增幅较大。但除此之外,出口还是增加了0.6%。

However, this was at odds with earlier monthly trade data, which had pointed to a fall in export volumes of around 3% in Q3. This, together with the very large negative “statistical discrepancy” in the Q3 GDP data, might suggest that the exports estimate will be revised in future.

这与前一个月的贸易数据不一致,本来从该数据看,第3季度的贸易额会下降3%左右。再加上第三季度GDP数据“统计差异”的明显消极作用,这可能暗示未来会修订出口估计。

In any case, the reported strength of exports is very unlikely to be sustained. The appreciation of the franc’s effective exchange rate has probably yet to be seen. This occurred after the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling in January.

不管怎么说,出口目前的劲头是不太可能持续的。法郎实际汇率升值的效果可能还有待观察。这发生在今年1月份,瑞士国家银行放弃设定汇率上限。

Other data released today showed that the Swiss manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in November from 50.7 in October. This put the index back in contraction territory.

今天发布的其他数据显示瑞士11月份制造业PMI从10月份的50.7下滑到49.6。这就表示又回到通缩了。

Meanwhile, October’s 0.8% annual fall in Swiss retail sales was a worrying sign that the long period of negative inflation in Switzerland might be starting to cause households to put off purchases.

同时,10月份瑞士零售销售0.8%的年下降率着实让人担心,这标志着瑞士长期的消极通胀使得瑞士家庭延缓消费支出了。

All in all, Capital Economics still sees the Swiss economy struggling to grow next year as currency strength takes its toll. The SNB should go on intervening in FX markets. We also see the SNB cutting its deposit rate to -1.0% at its meeting on 10th December. But this is unlikely to prevent an appreciation of the franc or eradicate the threat of deflation.

总之,凯投宏观依然认为明年瑞士经济增长比较困难,因为货币强势程度会减弱。瑞士国家银行应该继续干预外汇市场。另外,我们还等着12月10日的时候,瑞士国家银行会把存款利率下调到1%。但这并不能阻止法郎的升值,也不能消除通缩的威胁。

Well that’s about it for this week .traders are busily determining where the markets will go to close out the year and major events this week, include thwe crucial ECB meeting, speeches from Janet Yellen, OPEC's conference in Vienna and the November jobs report, which  will likely give clues about that direction and with more than a half-dozen Fed officials also scheduled to speak over the next few days, which may provide further hints about upcoming U.S. monetary policy there is plenty of volatility opportunity to come .

本周的宏观视角就讲到这里。年末了,交易者肯定忙着猜测市场将何去何从?本周的重大财经事件有:欧洲央行重大会议、耶伦讲话、维也纳OPEC会议以及11月就业报告等。这些事件都会对未来的走向给出些许提示。接下来几天,有6位以上的美联储官员会陆续发表演讲,这些演讲都会进一步暗示未来美国的货币政策,大量震荡的机会就要来临。

So tread carefully as its not only the weather that could get wild this week .

所以,本周做交易要多加留心哦。

This has been Alex Heath reporting for GKFX ,

这就是本期的Alex Health 视频报道

Goodbye , have a good weeks trading, and thanks for watching .

再见,感谢您的观看,祝您本周交易愉快。

Expert

Alex Heath
策略研究员

金融生涯长约40年,成为LME的一名银&锡交易员是Alex Heath职业生涯的起点。精通于LME基本金属在期货、期权等方面的风险及研究。曾供职于LM...
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