12/18/2015 4:12:17 PM
捷凯金融 - 宏观视角

GKFX – Macro Corner – 151215

China’s central bank has signaled its intention to change the way it manages the yuan’s value by potentially easing its loose peg to the U.S. dollar and instead letting it track the currencies of its broader trading partners.

中国央行暗示,要通过放松人民币与美元挂钩,调整人民币的价值管理方式,让人民币钉住其主要贸易伙伴的货币。

In an editorial posted on its website Friday night, the People’s Bank of China said the yuan’s exchange rate would be better measured against a basket of currencies rather than the dollar alone.

上周五晚中国人民银行网站发布的社论表示,与其让人民币汇率只与美元挂钩,不如让人民币汇率与一篮子货币挂钩。

The foreign-exchange trading system run by the central bank for the first time published the composition of the currency basket, which comprises the dollar, euro, yen and 10 other currencies. It isn’t clear whether or when China would move away from the dollar in favor of the currency basket, which it has discussed in the past. But any change could have broad repercussions for currency markets—such as reducing China’s demand for dollars—as well as for investors and global trade. As if to  underline the ‘announcement’

央行负责的外汇交易体系首次公开了货币篮子的构成,由美元、欧元、日元和其他10种货币组成。中国是否要疏远美元亲近货币篮子,何时这么做,目前还不清楚。但是,任何改变对货币市场的影响都是广泛的—例如中国对美元的需求会相应减少,投资者和国际贸易也会相应地受到影响。

China's yuan tumbled further on Monday after the  central bank continued guiding  the currency lower, setting the yuan/dollar official midpoint at its weakest since July 2011.

央行持续引导人民币贬值后,人民币进一步下跌,人民币/美元的汇率中间价达到2011年7月以来的最低值。

Beijing's introduction of a renminbi exchange rate index - a move that will loosen the yuan's link to the greenback - further weighed on the currency. But the move has also set off selling of the yuan both within China and in what is known as Hong Kong’s offshore market amid investor expectations that a currency basket means a weaker yuan. The dollar hit another four-and-a-half-year high against the yuan on Tuesday, valued at 6.4698 yuan, after hitting one on Monday.

中国对人民币汇率指数的引入一举,会减弱人民币与美钞逐渐的联系,使得人民币的权重进一步加重。但这一举动同时也会引起中国大陆和香港地区的离岸人民币市场对人民币的价值预期降低。在周一创出新高之后,美元兑人民币的汇率在周二再次创出四年半以来的新高,达到了6.4698元。

Meanwhile, data over the weekend showed Chinese industrial production growing at a faster-than-expected pace in November, suggesting as we have been saying for a while now that Beijing could reach its growth target of about 7% this year after many rounds of heavy stimulus.

同时,11月份中国工业产出增长的速度超出预期,暗示着几轮重磅刺激之后,中国今年7%的增长目标还是可以实现的。

Friday sees the release of the country’s housing index data for November and is measured by year over year change in house prices in 70 medium and large cities. The Index increased 0.1 percent year-on-year in October of 2015, the first rise since August 2014. In Beijing, prices rose 6.5 percent while in Shanghai prices went up 10.9 percent. On a monthly basis, new home prices rose 0.2 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain, signaling a slight recovery in the housing market

上周五发布了中国11月份的房价指数数据,该数据衡量的是中国70座大中型城市房价的同比变化。10月份该指数上涨了0.1%,是2014年8月以来首次上升。北京的房价指数上涨了6.5%,上海的房价指数上涨了10.9%。 从每月的情况来看,新屋价格上涨了0.2%,已经连续6个月上涨,标志着房地产市场的轻微回升。

In Japan Confidence at large manufacturing companies  held steady in the three months to December, with the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey holding at +12, but it looks like some trouble could be brewing ahead. "The deterioration, especially in manufacturers' outlook, is a bit concerning," according to  Izumi Devalier, an economist at HSBC Holdings. The survey indicated companies were taking a cautious stance on the future due to general emerging market concerns and weak Japanese consumer spending.

日本方面,三个月以来大型制造企业信心稳定,日本央行的短观调查维持在+12,但前途似乎并不太平。汇丰银行经济学家Izumi Devalier 称,“恶化状况还是让人担忧的,尤其是在制造业前景上。”调查显示,由于新兴市场整体状态不容乐观,日本消费支出疲软,很多企业对未来持谨慎态度。

In the US Economic data was light last week ahead of this week’s FOMC on December 15-16. Headline growth for retail sales in November was disappointing at a meager 0.2 percent– lower gasoline prices and an inexplicable drop in motor vehicles (contrary to the gains in reported light vehicle sales) held down the headline number. Core retail sales (excluding autos, building materials, and gasoline), posted the strongest monthly gain since May, however, and are up a solid 3.5% over the past year. Still, growth in retail sales (and other consumer spending data) has been weaker than expected this year, given strong job gains and the added boost from lower energy prices.

在本周15-16日的FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)召开之际,美国方面的经济数据并不理想。11月的零售业整体增长仅有令人失望的0.2%。更低的汽油价格以及令人费解的汽车销售额猛减使得整体的数据疲弱。然而,除了汽车、建材和汽油之外的核心零售业数据却是五月以来的最佳数据,并且比去年高出整整3.5%。虽然今年总体的零售业销售额(以及其他消费类数据)有大量新增的就业岗位以及低价能源的刺激,但实际数据仍然低于预期。

One explanation may be that consumer confidence remains subdued amid  elevated international uncertainty(both economically and geopolitically). The consumer sentiment index inched higher in the first halfofDecember, but onlysits  slightly above a year-low. The data implies that consumers are pocketing extra income and energy savings rather than rushing out for sales. For instance, the personal saving rate climbed to the highest level in four years at 5.6 percent of disposable income in October. History still suggests that the buildup in savings portend spending  gains ahead as long  as income growth remain positive.

一种解释是,受到国际经济和政治形势不稳定性因素的影响,消费者的信心被大大压制。消费者情绪指数在12月上旬有所回升,但仅仅比今年的年低稍高。这一数据暗示消费者们更偏向于省下额外的收入和能源而非急于消费。一个佐证是,10月份的个人储蓄率达到占个人可支配收入的5.6%,创出了4年来的新高。历史证明,只要收入增长维持正增长,那么储蓄的增加也预示着将来消费会增加。

Yesterday ( Monday )WTI crude ended a six-day losing streak as it settled 1.9% higher at $36.31/bbl, turning higher in intraday trade after earlier falling to as low as $34.53/bbl for the first time since February 2009.however few expect the recovery to hold for long amidst a widening belief that the Saudis and sheikdoms of the oil producing Gulf are playing a very long and deadly serious game of risk. History has shown they are pretty good at it and these low prices are taking a heavy toll on credit ratings of US companies both large and small

昨日(周一),WTI原油终于终结了连续6日的连败状态,原油价格在日内创出2009年2月的低点$34.53后,回升到$36.31/每桶,提高了1.9%。然而,

在大众普遍预期沙特地区产油诸国将会冒险打一场致命的长期价格战的情况下,少有人预期此次的油价回升能够维持。历史证明,沙特诸国非常擅长这一策略,而原油价格战会令美国的大小企业在信用评级过程中付出沉重的代价。

This week Apart from Wednesday’s Fed Headlining event we have CPI .Consumer prices have hovered around a monthly change of 0 percent so far this year due largely to the sharp drop in energy prices. Analysts expect consumer prices to fall 0.2 percent for the month of November. Consumer prices excluding food and energy are expected to move up by 0.2 percent.

本周,除了周三美联储的头条事件,我们还要关注CPI。由于能源价格的急跌,消费价格指数维持在月度变化0%周边徘徊。分析师预测,消费价格会在11月再降0.2%,而剔除食物和能源的消费价格指数会上升0.2%。

Industrial Production

Industrial production has continued to spend much of the year held back due to a continued rise in the valued of the U.S. dollar along with weaker foreign demand, and is expected to fall by 0.5 percent.

伴随着海外需求的疲弱和美元的不断升值,工业生产持续受到抑制,并预期会进一步下滑0.5%。

And we have Housing starts which have continued to improve with demand for homes and rental units since the last recession. We expect housing starts to reach 1.13 million units (annualized) in November with a small pickup in both components – single family homes and multifamily units. The housing market index is a reflection of home builders’ expectation of new home sales and we expect it to be around 64, above the year average

自上次经济衰退以来,对家庭住宅和租用房屋的需求上升,造成了房屋开工率的上升。我们预计,独居住宅和多人住宅数都会有小幅上升,房屋开工总数会在11月份达到年计113万户。住房市场指数反映的是房屋开发商对新房销售额的预期值。我们预计该指数会达到64,高于年度均值。

The US Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision this week is possibly the biggest news on financial markets in years, but there are many who think that just like the ECB decision the news is priced in after so long . The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates but it will only be by a very small amount and given the finely balanced uncertainty in the economy at present they are quite likely to signal no further hikes at this stage. This will probably lead to an unwinding of recent USD safe haven positions and much of this will likely feedback into the Euro causing it to spike against sterling .

Any way JUST LIKE Christmas -  not long to wait now

本周的美联储利率决议可能是今年金融市场上最大的财经事件,但也有很多人认为这一结果会和欧洲央行的决议一样,因为市场已经发酵很久了。美联储将会加息,但是这次加息仅仅增加了很小的数额。而其中透露出的微妙的不确定性或许预示着在本阶段(利率)不会有更多的抬升。当前的局势可能会令美元扮演起避风港的角色,从而使得欧元牢牢盯紧英镑。

总之,就像圣诞节一样,该来的不久都会来的。

This has been Alex Heath in my last broadcast for GKFX.   I would like to take this opportunity thank you all for following us over the past 18 months and for all your kind comments and suggestions.

I shall be continuing our weekly commentaries next year under the independent banner of Base Metal Solutions ltd. So for those of you who wish to remain with us you can do so at www.basemetalsolutions.co.uk   

Goodbye, good luck and as ever thanks for watching.

这就是本周的宏观视角,感谢您的观看。

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Alex Heath
策略研究员

金融生涯长约40年,成为LME的一名银&锡交易员是Alex Heath职业生涯的起点。精通于LME基本金属在期货、期权等方面的风险及研究。曾供职于LM...
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